Table 3-5. Rates (%) of 1-year (i.e., Wave 2 past year) and 3-year (i.e., Wave 1 to Wave 2) first incidence of selected DSM-IV psychiatric disorders, by sex and age group, according to past-year frequency of drinking 5 or more drinks for men or 4 or more drinks for women in a single day at Wave 1 among Wave 1 current drinkers.

Table 3-5. Rates (%) of 1‑year (i.e., Wave 2 past year) and 3‑year (i.e., Wave 1 to Wave 2) first incidence of selected DSM‑IV psychiatric disorders, by sex and age group, according to Wave 1 past‑year frequency of drinking 5 or more drinks for men or 4 or more drinks for women in a single day among Wave 1 current drinkers.1

Wave 1 past‑year frequency of drinking 5 or more drinks
for men or 4 or more drinks for women in a single day
and first incidence rates of psychiatric disorders

Both sexes

Sex

Age group at Wave 1

Estimate

S.E.

Male

Female

18–24 years

25–44 years

45–64 years

65 years and older

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Never in the past year

1‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

1.71

0.14

2.32

0.29

1.28

0.14

6.23

0.95

1.92

0.25

0.90

0.16

*0.30

0.18

Alcohol abuse

1.02

0.12

1.52

0.24

0.68

0.10

3.80

0.75

1.15

0.19

0.49

0.12

*0.19

0.17

Alcohol dependence

1.37

0.11

1.85

0.22

0.97

0.12

5.33

0.78

1.61

0.21

0.73

0.12

*0.12

0.07

Nicotine dependence

3.85

0.23

4.42

0.34

3.34

0.32

6.87

1.08

3.97

0.36

4.00

0.37

1.76

0.28

Any drug use disorder

0.31

0.06

0.23

0.07

0.38

0.09

1.72

0.44

0.32

0.11

*0.12

0.05

—

Any drug abuse

0.29

0.06

0.20

0.06

0.36

0.09

1.59

0.43

0.32

0.11

*0.08

0.04

—

Any drug dependence

0.33

0.07

0.48

0.14

0.19

0.07

1.90

0.54

*0.21

0.10

*0.21

0.11

—

Any mood disorder

2.31

0.17

1.44

0.20

3.21

0.29

4.89

0.84

2.61

0.29

1.81

0.26

1.45

0.28

Major depressive disorder

1.64

0.14

0.91

0.16

2.39

0.25

3.00

0.62

1.65

0.23

1.49

0.24

1.20

0.26

Bipolar I

0.47

0.07

0.42

0.10

0.52

0.09

1.20

0.39

0.63

0.14

0.23

0.07

*0.26

0.12

Bipolar II

0.21

0.04

*0.14

0.05

0.28

0.06

*0.75

0.29

0.31

0.08

*0.07

0.03

*0.02

0.02

Any anxiety disorder

1.46

0.13

0.94

0.17

2.01

0.22

1.54

0.40

2.18

0.25

1.24

0.21

*0.30

0.11

Any panic disorder

0.61

0.08

0.36

0.10

0.84

0.12

1.05

0.30

0.72

0.14

0.64

0.14

*0.07

0.05

Panic without agoraphobia

0.54

0.07

0.31

0.09

0.75

0.12

0.85

0.27

0.65

0.13

0.55

0.13

*0.07

0.05

Panic with agoraphobia

0.06

0.02

*0.05

0.03

*0.08

0.03

*0.18

0.12

*0.06

0.03

*0.08

0.04

—

Social phobia

0.23

0.05

0.24

0.08

0.22

0.07

*0.22

0.12

0.26

0.08

0.28

0.11

*0.06

0.03

Specific phobia

0.42

0.06

0.31

0.08

0.52

0.10

*0.44

0.22

0.60

0.13

0.40

0.11

*0.02

0.02

Generalized anxiety

1.08

0.09

0.57

0.11

1.56

0.17

1.26

0.36

1.63

0.21

0.77

0.15

0.37

0.13

3‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

5.68

0.28

8.14

0.53

3.91

0.31

17.30

1.43

5.78

0.47

4.03

0.40

1.57

0.32

Alcohol abuse

4.69

0.27

7.14

0.49

2.93

0.27

13.49

1.33

4.72

0.42

3.46

0.40

1.54

0.32

Alcohol dependence

2.55

0.17

3.21

0.28

1.98

0.20

10.03

1.00

2.79

0.29

1.40

0.20

*0.28

0.13

Nicotine dependence

5.93

0.29

6.90

0.44

5.09

0.35

10.25

1.23

6.22

0.42

6.04

0.52

2.87

0.37

Any drug use disorder

1.46

0.15

1.89

0.27

1.10

0.13

5.62

0.84

1.67

0.26

0.80

0.19

*0.22

0.10

Any drug abuse

1.43

0.15

1.82

0.26

1.09

0.13

5.50

0.83

1.62

0.26

0.78

0.19

*0.22

0.10

Any drug dependence

0.60

0.09

0.80

0.15

0.43

0.09

2.85

0.64

0.55

0.13

0.36

0.12

*0.01

0.01

Any mood disorder

6.75

0.28

4.07

0.32

9.45

0.45

12.73

1.20

7.38

0.45

6.13

0.49

3.73

0.40

Major depressive disorder

4.96

0.25

2.64

0.27

7.25

0.39

7.47

0.86

5.15

0.39

4.91

0.45

3.29

0.38

Bipolar I

1.53

0.11

1.25

0.16

1.79

0.17

3.88

0.66

1.89

0.19

1.07

0.15

0.44

0.16

Bipolar II

0.65

0.08

0.46

0.10

0.83

0.12

2.29

0.50

0.82

0.13

0.33

0.09

*0.06

0.04

Any anxiety disorder

6.27

0.26

4.42

0.35

8.14

0.46

9.65

1.09

7.62

0.44

6.03

0.48

2.01

0.30

Any panic disorder

1.74

0.13

0.96

0.16

2.47

0.20

3.27

0.55

2.10

0.22

1.56

0.22

0.47

0.16

Panic without agoraphobia

1.41

0.11

0.72

0.14

2.05

0.18

2.58

0.49

1.74

0.20

1.26

0.19

*0.32

0.12

Panic with agoraphobia

0.30

0.06

0.23

0.07

0.37

0.08

*0.64

0.26

0.32

0.09

0.27

0.10

*0.14

0.10

Social phobia

1.42

0.12

1.25

0.15

1.57

0.18

2.14

0.52

1.72

0.20

1.42

0.23

0.33

0.11

Specific phobia

2.16

0.15

1.70

0.23

2.61

0.22

3.90

0.72

2.55

0.25

2.03

0.22

0.61

0.17

Generalized anxiety

3.10

0.16

1.78

0.19

4.30

0.28

3.60

0.65

3.84

0.30

2.97

0.30

1.35

0.26

1 to 11 times in the past year

1‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

3.47

0.58

4.77

1.07

2.40

0.58

8.31

2.31

2.95

0.65

*0.15

0.11

—

Alcohol abuse

2.75

0.53

3.02

0.76

2.51

0.64

5.38

1.59

2.56

0.63

*0.52

0.40

—

Alcohol dependence

2.62

0.44

3.26

0.69

1.90

0.47

4.41

1.28

2.48

0.62

2.03

0.58

—

Nicotine dependence

5.50

0.62

5.65

0.83

5.31

0.88

6.94

1.45

5.38

0.86

5.04

1.02

*2.99

2.23

Any drug use disorder

0.53

0.18

*0.89

0.32

*0.10

0.07

*1.93

0.84

*0.38

0.20

—

Any drug abuse

0.52

0.18

*0.87

0.32

*0.10

0.07

*1.86

0.83

*0.37

0.20

—

Any drug dependence

*0.21

0.09

*0.21

0.12

*0.21

0.14

*0.52

0.36

*0.08

0.06

*0.32

0.25

—

Any mood disorder

2.36

0.36

1.86

0.41

3.18

0.66

2.16

0.81

2.79

0.54

*1.60

0.60

*1.85

1.83

Major depressive disorder

1.74

0.30

1.37

0.34

2.29

0.53

*1.61

0.66

2.06

0.44

*1.08

0.48

*1.81

1.80

Bipolar I

0.55

0.16

*0.42

0.19

*0.70

0.29

*0.21

0.21

0.77

0.26

*0.33

0.26

—

Bipolar II

*0.05

0.03

—

*0.12

0.07

—

*0.07

0.05

*0.07

0.05

—

Any anxiety disorder

1.86

0.26

1.45

0.32

2.53

0.52

*1.26

0.58

2.41

0.40

*1.24

0.61

—

Any panic disorder

0.69

0.18

*0.46

0.21

1.00

0.30

*0.83

0.43

0.88

0.27

*0.22

0.13

—

Panic without agoraphobia

0.50

0.14

*0.35

0.18

0.68

0.20

*0.73

0.41

0.57

0.18

*0.21

0.13

—

Panic with agoraphobia

*0.18

0.10

*0.10

0.10

*0.27

0.20

*0.08

0.08

*0.28

0.18

—

Social phobia

*0.36

0.15

*0.39

0.23

*0.32

0.17

—

*0.63

0.25

—

Specific phobia

0.40

0.14

*0.30

0.17

*0.54

0.26

*0.26

0.19

*0.43

0.19

*0.48

0.39

—

Generalized anxiety

1.60

0.22

1.14

0.29

2.21

0.42

*0.58

0.34

2.03

0.33

1.54

0.54

—

3‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

12.23

0.93

16.99

1.65

7.97

1.08

21.53

2.76

10.13

1.33

7.83

1.86

*6.18

4.29

Alcohol abuse

11.94

0.98

15.11

1.58

9.09

1.22

18.43

2.37

10.57

1.37

8.13

1.93

*7.56

4.45

Alcohol dependence

5.23

0.52

6.27

0.83

4.04

0.67

10.11

1.70

4.70

0.78

3.53

0.74

—

Nicotine dependence

8.27

0.73

8.28

0.94

8.26

1.09

9.75

1.66

8.51

0.99

7.03

1.25

*4.31

2.56

Any drug use disorder

3.30

0.48

3.59

0.61

2.95

0.81

8.15

1.71

2.91

0.70

*1.13

0.56

—

Any drug abuse

3.23

0.48

3.47

0.61

2.94

0.81

7.82

1.71

2.90

0.70

*1.13

0.56

—

Any drug dependence

0.89

0.30

0.68

0.20

1.15

0.62

1.53

0.54

0.98

0.49

*0.32

0.25

—

Any mood disorder

7.30

0.66

6.09

0.80

9.21

1.07

7.99

1.47

8.69

1.01

3.85

0.84

*4.89

2.56

Major depressive disorder

4.52

0.48

3.72

0.61

5.72

0.73

4.88

1.12

5.08

0.73

2.85

0.67

*4.80

2.51

Bipolar I

2.58

0.38

2.33

0.49

2.90

0.52

2.47

0.75

3.21

0.58

1.27

0.51

*1.49

1.48

Bipolar II

0.83

0.18

*0.78

0.27

0.90

0.24

*1.97

0.79

0.81

0.25

*0.15

0.10

—

Any anxiety disorder

7.12

0.56

4.76

0.65

10.64

1.14

8.38

1.54

7.77

0.72

5.55

1.14

—

Any panic disorder

2.30

0.34

1.41

0.39

3.47

0.62

2.98

0.90

2.55

0.51

1.49

0.47

—

Panic without agoraphobia

1.88

0.30

1.02

0.31

2.99

0.57

2.29

0.86

2.02

0.43

1.47

0.47

—

Panic with agoraphobia

0.37

0.15

*0.37

0.21

*0.38

0.21

*0.62

0.30

*0.47

0.25

—

Social phobia

1.31

0.24

0.59

0.24

2.22

0.42

2.04

0.70

1.51

0.31

*0.41

0.20

—

Specific phobia

2.69

0.37

1.81

0.39

3.92

0.73

3.75

1.07

2.21

0.44

3.45

0.95

—

Generalized anxiety

4.21

0.43

2.73

0.48

6.14

0.78

3.98

0.98

5.01

0.55

2.96

0.71

—

12 or more times in the past year

1‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

6.71

1.01

8.16

1.50

4.86

1.16

13.07

2.78

4.43

1.05

5.10

1.78

*1.78

1.40

Alcohol abuse

3.54

0.65

3.94

1.04

3.03

0.70

7.19

1.83

2.46

0.69

*1.84

0.95

—

Alcohol dependence

6.34

0.60

6.91

0.77

5.28

0.94

10.33

1.60

4.60

0.71

6.26

1.35

*5.98

2.16

Nicotine dependence

9.16

0.69

9.55

0.86

8.33

1.09

11.60

1.58

8.09

0.86

9.51

1.36

*5.60

2.88

Any drug use disorder

0.50

0.18

0.54

0.26

*0.42

0.20

1.69

0.79

*0.21

0.11

*0.11

0.09

—

Any drug abuse

0.49

0.18

0.53

0.26

*0.43

0.20

1.69

0.78

*0.21

0.11

*0.08

0.08

—

Any drug dependence

0.71

0.17

0.85

0.23

*0.41

0.19

1.70

0.54

0.43

0.20

*0.35

0.19

—

Any mood disorder

2.13

0.26

1.71

0.27

3.19

0.67

2.89

0.65

2.06

0.40

1.51

0.40

*1.41

1.28

Major depressive disorder

1.16

0.19

0.96

0.21

1.66

0.41

1.42

0.44

1.18

0.26

0.75

0.28

*1.37

1.25

Bipolar I

0.77

0.14

0.59

0.15

1.14

0.31

1.24

0.37

0.45

0.16

1.05

0.33

—

Bipolar II

0.26

0.10

*0.14

0.07

*0.50

0.27

*0.24

0.17

*0.28

0.17

*0.12

0.09

*0.88

0.88

Any anxiety disorder

1.79

0.29

1.36

0.29

2.87

0.64

1.79

0.53

2.01

0.43

1.52

0.67

*0.32

0.32

Any panic disorder

0.81

0.16

0.44

0.14

1.63

0.41

*0.93

0.36

0.93

0.25

*0.52

0.27

—

Panic without agoraphobia

0.63

0.14

0.36

0.12

1.22

0.35

*0.72

0.32

0.68

0.20

*0.51

0.26

—

Panic with agoraphobia

*0.16

0.08

*0.07

0.07

*0.35

0.19

*0.19

0.14

*0.22

0.14

—

Social phobia

0.32

0.10

*0.16

0.08

*0.69

0.26

*0.37

0.24

*0.42

0.15

*0.06

0.06

*0.28

0.27

Specific phobia

0.67

0.19

0.52

0.19

1.01

0.44

*0.35

0.27

0.86

0.26

*0.72

0.51

—

Generalized anxiety

1.12

0.22

0.79

0.19

1.85

0.53

*0.87

0.35

1.59

0.39

*0.55

0.24

—

3‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

25.89

1.50

29.97

2.10

20.13

2.03

37.22

3.33

22.72

2.02

20.34

2.98

12.46

4.21

Alcohol abuse

22.34

1.25

25.46

1.77

18.00

1.74

30.98

2.71

19.98

1.73

17.33

2.58

*9.64

3.83

Alcohol dependence

12.60

0.85

13.45

1.11

10.99

1.31

18.80

2.09

10.45

0.99

11.89

1.63

7.89

2.49

Nicotine dependence

13.68

0.84

13.96

1.06

13.08

1.30

17.77

1.78

11.78

1.06

14.34

1.73

*7.48

3.12

Any drug use disorder

4.57

0.47

4.85

0.60

4.02

0.71

11.07

1.47

3.32

0.52

1.60

0.51

—

Any drug abuse

4.38

0.44

4.70

0.59

3.76

0.67

10.98

1.46

3.03

0.47

1.43

0.44

—

Any drug dependence

2.56

0.36

2.96

0.51

1.72

0.38

4.95

0.89

2.25

0.49

0.95

0.39

—

Any mood disorder

7.39

0.61

6.06

0.68

10.64

1.10

8.52

1.07

7.90

0.96

5.54

1.11

*3.57

1.94

Major depressive disorder

4.67

0.47

3.60

0.49

7.18

0.88

5.19

0.81

4.98

0.75

3.49

0.88

*3.47

1.87

Bipolar I

2.54

0.31

2.26

0.38

3.13

0.56

3.37

0.66

2.45

0.42

2.19

0.53

—

Bipolar II

0.78

0.16

0.52

0.15

1.34

0.36

0.74

0.30

0.79

0.23

*0.72

0.35

*1.35

0.99

Any anxiety disorder

7.28

0.59

6.04

0.67

10.26

1.08

7.80

1.12

7.64

0.85

6.67

1.10

*2.01

1.27

Any panic disorder

2.29

0.33

1.57

0.33

3.83

0.62

3.13

0.65

2.33

0.47

1.42

0.41

*0.50

0.50

Panic without agoraphobia

1.88

0.29

1.40

0.29

2.90

0.57

2.72

0.62

1.76

0.39

1.32

0.40

*0.50

0.50

Panic with agoraphobia

0.36

0.11

*0.15

0.09

0.81

0.25

*0.37

0.18

0.52

0.22

*0.07

0.07

—

Social phobia

2.01

0.26

1.71

0.30

2.67

0.50

2.18

0.55

2.26

0.37

1.27

0.43

*1.71

1.43

Specific phobia

2.62

0.30

2.05

0.32

3.92

0.64

2.62

0.62

2.89

0.44

2.42

0.66

—

Generalized anxiety

3.38

0.39

2.63

0.42

5.02

0.78

2.90

0.66

4.07

0.62

2.62

0.68

*2.01

1.40

1Current drinker: 1 or more drinks in the past year.

*Fewer than 10 observations in the cell.

—Empty cell.

SOURCE: NIAAA 2001–2002 and 2004–2005 National Epidemiologic Surveys on Alcohol and Related Conditions.

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