Table 3-4. Rates (%) of 1‑year (i.e., Wave 2 past year) and 3‑year (i.e., Wave 1 to Wave 2) first incidence of selected DSM‑IV psychiatric disorders, by sex and age group, according to Wave 1 past‑year DSM‑IV alcohol use disorder status among Wave 1 current drinkers.1

Wave 1 past‑year DSM‑IV alcohol use disorder status
and first incidence rates of psychiatric disorders

Both sexes

Sex

Age group at Wave 1

Estimate

S.E.

Male

Female

18–24 years

25–44 years

45–64 years

65 years and older

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

No alcohol use disorder

                            

 1‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

2.34

0.16

3.26

0.31

1.64

0.15

7.82

0.93

2.32

0.23

1.17

0.18

*0.33

0.18

              Alcohol abuse

1.43

0.14

2.01

0.27

0.98

0.12

4.94

0.72

1.44

0.19

0.58

0.14

*0.18

0.16

              Alcohol dependence

1.94

0.12

2.59

0.21

1.34

0.13

5.66

0.62

2.00

0.20

1.20

0.18

0.43

0.13

         Nicotine dependence

4.70

0.21

5.47

0.32

3.94

0.30

8.23

0.85

4.71

0.31

4.67

0.35

1.91

0.28

         Any drug use disorder

0.35

0.06

0.36

0.09

0.34

0.08

1.83

0.42

0.28

0.09

*0.09

0.04

—

—

              Any drug abuse

0.33

0.06

0.33

0.09

0.32

0.08

1.75

0.42

0.28

0.09

*0.07

0.03

—

—

              Any drug dependence

0.29

0.06

0.39

0.10

0.20

0.06

1.45

0.37

0.17

0.07

*0.17

0.09

—

—

         Any mood disorder

2.24

0.14

1.41

0.14

3.22

0.25

3.73

0.53

2.50

0.24

1.71

0.21

1.46

0.27

              Major depressive disorder

1.57

0.11

0.89

0.11

2.36

0.21

2.35

0.42

1.66

0.18

1.31

0.17

1.23

0.25

              Bipolar I

0.50

0.06

0.46

0.08

0.55

0.08

0.95

0.25

0.59

0.11

0.34

0.07

*0.24

0.11

              Bipolar II

0.19

0.04

0.10

0.04

0.28

0.06

*0.43

0.17

0.26

0.07

*0.07

0.03

*0.07

0.06

         Any anxiety disorder

1.52

0.12

1.00

0.14

2.15

0.20

1.46

0.32

2.15

0.21

1.27

0.21

*0.27

0.11

              Any panic disorder

0.65

0.07

0.39

0.08

0.93

0.13

0.93

0.23

0.81

0.13

0.58

0.11

*0.07

0.05

                   Panic without agoraphobia

0.54

0.06

0.31

0.07

0.77

0.11

0.77

0.21

0.64

0.11

0.51

0.11

*0.07

0.05

                   Panic with agoraphobia

0.10

0.03

*0.08

0.04

0.13

0.05

*0.14

0.08

0.15

0.06

*0.06

0.03

—

—

              Social phobia

0.27

0.05

0.24

0.07

0.30

0.07

*0.28

0.14

0.36

0.08

0.23

0.09

*0.07

0.03

              Specific phobia

0.44

0.06

0.31

0.07

0.58

0.10

*0.34

0.14

0.60

0.11

0.44

0.12

*0.02

0.02

              Generalized anxiety

1.10

0.08

0.61

0.09

1.62

0.15

0.98

0.24

1.61

0.16

0.79

0.13

*0.32

0.11

 3‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

8.53

0.33

12.21

0.58

5.61

0.33

22.29

1.37

8.43

0.50

5.61

0.46

1.99

0.34

              Alcohol abuse

7.19

0.31

10.40

0.54

4.64

0.32

18.22

1.20

7.07

0.46

4.87

0.43

1.88

0.34

              Alcohol dependence

3.90

0.19

4.90

0.28

2.94

0.22

11.42

0.88

3.99

0.29

2.35

0.25

0.69

0.18

         Nicotine dependence

7.10

0.26

8.14

0.40

6.07

0.34

12.03

1.02

7.27

0.36

6.93

0.47

2.94

0.36

         Any drug use disorder

1.91

0.16

2.34

0.25

1.51

0.18

7.27

0.76

1.88

0.27

0.82

0.17

*0.21

0.10

              Any drug abuse

1.88

0.16

2.26

0.24

1.51

0.17

7.12

0.76

1.85

0.27

0.80

0.17

*0.21

0.10

              Any drug dependence

0.76

0.10

0.96

0.16

0.57

0.12

2.88

0.48

0.74

0.16

0.33

0.11

*0.01

0.01

         Any mood disorder

6.66

0.25

4.38

0.27

9.30

0.38

10.22

0.78

7.36

0.41

5.75

0.40

3.82

0.39

              Major depressive disorder

4.76

0.21

2.85

0.22

6.92

0.33

6.28

0.60

5.02

0.33

4.43

0.36

3.41

0.37

              Bipolar I

1.70

0.11

1.47

0.15

1.93

0.16

3.16

0.43

2.08

0.18

1.21

0.16

0.41

0.15

              Bipolar II

0.64

0.07

0.44

0.09

0.85

0.11

1.79

0.34

0.70

0.11

0.35

0.09

*0.14

0.07

         Any anxiety disorder

6.39

0.24

4.53

0.28

8.51

0.42

8.59

0.75

7.57

0.35

5.88

0.42

1.99

0.29

              Any panic disorder

1.87

0.13

1.11

0.14

2.66

0.20

3.07

0.42

2.21

0.21

1.56

0.19

0.46

0.15

                   Panic without agoraphobia

1.51

0.11

0.85

0.12

2.19

0.18

2.44

0.37

1.77

0.17

1.31

0.17

0.33

0.12

                   Panic with agoraphobia

0.33

0.05

0.25

0.07

0.41

0.08

0.59

0.17

0.40

0.10

0.22

0.08

*0.13

0.09

              Social phobia

1.46

0.11

1.19

0.13

1.73

0.17

2.28

0.40

1.71

0.17

1.25

0.20

0.41

0.13

              Specific phobia

2.21

0.13

1.64

0.16

2.83

0.21

3.32

0.48

2.47

0.19

2.17

0.22

0.56

0.16

              Generalized anxiety

3.17

0.16

1.87

0.18

4.52

0.25

3.22

0.51

3.96

0.25

2.85

0.26

1.37

0.25

Alcohol use disorder

                            

 1‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol abuse

4.38

1.62

*2.43

1.43

*6.30

2.81

*1.84

1.18

*6.92

3.71

*8.60

6.15

—

—

              Alcohol dependence

7.77

1.09

8.09

1.39

7.02

1.74

14.74

3.25

5.95

1.48

7.74

1.78

—

—

         Nicotine dependence

7.84

0.96

7.80

1.12

7.96

1.65

9.34

1.83

7.59

1.33

6.85

1.47

*6.42

5.41

         Any drug use disorder

0.63

0.22

*0.64

0.27

*0.61

0.40

*1.33

0.75

*0.53

0.27

*0.23

0.18

—

—

              Any drug abuse

*0.61

0.22

*0.64

0.27

*0.56

0.39

*1.31

0.75

*0.53

0.26

*0.17

0.17

—

—

              Any drug dependence

1.06

0.25

1.30

0.35

*0.50

0.23

1.95

0.66

*0.67

0.33

*1.07

0.51

—

—

         Any mood disorder

2.60

0.42

2.48

0.47

2.98

0.85

3.14

0.87

2.53

0.56

*2.30

1.04

*0.98

0.81

              Major depressive disorder

1.40

0.28

1.48

0.35

*1.13

0.47

1.40

0.52

1.26

0.37

*1.81

0.91

*0.94

0.78

              Bipolar I

0.85

0.20

0.53

0.17

1.63

0.55

*1.29

0.47

0.80

0.27

*0.52

0.31

—

—

              Bipolar II

*0.23

0.09

*0.18

0.11

*0.35

0.16

*0.38

0.27

*0.19

0.10

*0.18

0.14

—

—

         Any anxiety disorder

2.11

0.37

1.81

0.43

3.04

0.66

1.96

0.66

2.53

0.61

*1.44

0.64

*0.95

0.95

              Any panic disorder

0.81

0.20

*0.44

0.18

1.80

0.53

*1.06

0.42

0.84

0.28

*0.53

0.39

—

—

                   Panic without agoraphobia

0.71

0.18

*0.43

0.17

1.42

0.46

*0.79

0.36

0.79

0.27

*0.51

0.38

—

—

                   Panic with agoraphobia

*0.08

0.05

—

—

*0.28

0.19

*0.23

0.19

*0.04

0.04

—

—

—

—

              Social phobia

*0.22

0.10

*0.22

0.12

*0.20

0.14

*0.11

0.11

*0.37

0.18

—

—

—

—

              Specific phobia

0.65

0.25

*0.62

0.28

*0.74

0.46

*0.49

0.42

*0.80

0.37

*0.62

0.44

—

—

              Generalized anxiety

1.59

0.32

1.23

0.31

2.50

0.78

*0.99

0.52

2.14

0.56

*1.22

0.50

*0.89

0.89

 3‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol abuse

31.52

3.83

36.54

5.21

25.47

5.09

25.19

5.02

41.12

6.32

*28.51

9.91

*29.66

27.67

              Alcohol dependence

13.57

1.50

14.64

1.96

11.02

1.96

23.23

3.58

11.45

1.84

12.87

2.70

—

—

         Nicotine dependence

12.57

1.12

12.75

1.33

12.13

1.84

15.60

2.21

11.49

1.56

11.51

1.98

*11.85

5.84

         Any drug use disorder

5.75

0.68

6.26

0.88

4.60

0.98

10.88

1.79

5.00

0.98

2.77

0.99

—

—

              Any drug abuse

5.40

0.65

6.02

0.86

4.00

0.88

10.72

1.79

4.47

0.89

2.42

0.84

—

—

              Any drug dependence

3.15

0.46

3.49

0.64

2.36

0.58

5.38

1.08

2.78

0.65

1.70

0.64

—

—

         Any mood disorder

9.34

0.96

7.78

1.02

14.18

1.94

10.64

1.47

10.17

1.51

6.69

1.81

*1.95

1.22

              Major depressive disorder

5.29

0.67

4.11

0.70

8.63

1.44

5.46

0.96

5.41

1.13

5.26

1.53

*1.87

1.17

              Bipolar I

3.41

0.44

2.84

0.51

4.78

0.84

4.64

0.97

3.50

0.67

1.75

0.65

*1.78

1.77

              Bipolar II

1.15

0.25

0.94

0.30

1.64

0.44

*1.14

0.47

1.45

0.39

*0.57

0.30

—

—

         Any anxiety disorder

8.12

0.76

6.74

0.85

12.17

1.61

8.93

1.46

8.14

1.19

8.12

1.78

*0.95

0.95

              Any panic disorder

2.43

0.42

1.55

0.36

4.66

1.05

3.40

0.83

2.52

0.59

*1.13

0.58

—

—

                   Panic without agoraphobia

2.06

0.40

1.39

0.34

3.76

0.98

2.96

0.78

2.11

0.57

*0.96

0.55

—

—

                   Panic with agoraphobia

0.30

0.10

*0.13

0.09

*0.69

0.28

*0.35

0.22

*0.35

0.16

*0.13

0.13

—

—

              Social phobia

1.96

0.32

1.62

0.37

2.79

0.64

*1.67

0.63

2.36

0.45

1.64

0.73

—

—

              Specific phobia

3.10

0.46

2.60

0.50

4.42

0.96

3.53

1.01

3.11

0.59

2.97

0.88

—

—

              Generalized anxiety

4.30

0.53

3.56

0.62

6.14

1.00

3.88

0.92

5.01

0.82

3.60

1.15

*0.89

0.89

  Alcohol abuse only

                            

 1‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol abuse

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol dependence

7.77

1.09

8.09

1.39

7.02

1.74

14.74

3.25

5.95

1.48

7.74

1.78

—

—

         Nicotine dependence

8.17

1.28

7.62

1.49

9.57

2.20

11.04

2.98

7.87

1.78

6.80

1.66

*7.06

5.92

         Any drug use disorder

*0.71

0.29

*0.59

0.32

*1.02

0.67

*2.07

1.45

*0.55

0.31

*0.33

0.26

—

—

              Any drug abuse

*0.69

0.29

*0.59

0.32

*0.94

0.67

*2.07

1.45

*0.55

0.31

*0.25

0.25

—

—

              Any drug dependence

0.94

0.31

1.29

0.43

*0.05

0.05

*3.18

1.41

*0.25

0.19

*0.98

0.63

—

—

         Any mood disorder

1.87

0.42

1.58

0.43

*2.89

1.16

*2.88

1.23

1.59

0.52

*1.94

0.94

*1.06

0.88

              Major depressive disorder

0.98

0.30

0.90

0.33

*1.23

0.70

*1.11

0.75

*0.66

0.32

*1.61

0.87

*1.04

0.86

              Bipolar I

0.78

0.25

*0.41

0.17

*1.75

0.78

*2.21

0.99

*0.73

0.34

—

—

—

—

              Bipolar II

*0.19

0.12

*0.19

0.14

*0.20

0.15

*0.49

0.49

*0.10

0.08

*0.19

0.20

—

—

         Any anxiety disorder

1.57

0.39

1.45

0.47

*1.96

0.72

*0.88

0.53

1.81

0.61

*1.71

0.87

*1.06

1.07

              Any panic disorder

*0.63

0.23

*0.57

0.27

*0.81

0.45

*0.37

0.36

*0.82

0.35

*0.54

0.53

—

—

                   Panic without agoraphobia

*0.59

0.23

*0.56

0.27

*0.68

0.42

*0.36

0.36

*0.75

0.34

*0.53

0.52

—

—

                   Panic with agoraphobia

*0.03

0.03

—

—

*0.11

0.11

—

—

*0.06

0.06

—

—

—

—

              Social phobia

*0.16

0.12

*0.23

0.16

—

—

—

—

*0.31

0.22

—

—

—

—

              Specific phobia

*0.46

0.20

*0.50

0.26

*0.33

0.24

*0.20

0.20

*0.41

0.25

*0.90

0.64

—

—

              Generalized anxiety

1.18

0.34

1.01

0.39

*1.62

0.69

*1.17

0.81

*1.11

0.48

*1.38

0.67

*1.01

1.01

 3‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol abuse

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol dependence

13.57

1.50

14.64

1.96

11.02

1.96

23.23

3.58

11.45

1.84

12.87

2.70

—

—

         Nicotine dependence

12.26

1.44

12.57

1.75

11.46

2.22

14.75

3.22

11.60

2.03

11.69

2.41

*12.96

6.33

         Any drug use disorder

4.77

0.78

5.11

0.94

3.93

1.25

12.02

2.86

3.84

0.98

*2.66

1.06

—

—

              Any drug abuse

4.64

0.77

5.11

0.94

*3.50

1.20

12.02

2.86

3.83

0.98

*2.16

0.97

—

—

              Any drug dependence

1.75

0.38

1.87

0.48

*1.44

0.62

4.60

1.55

1.06

0.37

*1.49

0.71

—

—

         Any mood disorder

7.38

1.14

6.21

1.27

11.38

2.26

9.10

2.34

7.80

1.54

6.33

2.02

*2.11

1.31

              Major depressive disorder

4.25

0.82

3.35

0.89

7.11

1.80

*4.90

1.77

3.69

1.08

5.53

1.94

*2.06

1.29

              Bipolar I

2.73

0.53

2.34

0.59

3.74

1.04

4.73

1.42

3.39

0.87

*0.30

0.21

—

—

              Bipolar II

0.90

0.31

*0.88

0.40

*0.93

0.39

*0.77

0.56

1.33

0.48

*0.19

0.20

—

—

         Any anxiety disorder

6.56

0.99

5.81

1.11

8.91

1.97

5.67

1.76

7.26

1.34

6.89

2.12

*1.06

1.07

              Any panic disorder

1.50

0.38

1.32

0.47

2.02

0.69

*2.46

0.97

1.44

0.43

*1.20

0.79

—

—

                   Panic without agoraphobia

1.37

0.37

1.21

0.46

1.80

0.67

*2.43

0.96

1.21

0.41

*1.18

0.78

—

—

                   Panic with agoraphobia

*0.11

0.06

*0.09

0.07

*0.17

0.13

—

—

*0.21

0.12

—

—

—

—

              Social phobia

1.16

0.32

1.04

0.36

*1.50

0.59

*0.55

0.55

1.73

0.56

*0.55

0.33

—

—

              Specific phobia

2.98

0.60

2.83

0.69

3.42

1.19

*3.28

1.42

2.97

0.73

3.40

1.20

—

—

              Generalized anxiety

3.68

0.72

3.35

0.86

4.58

1.17

*2.39

1.02

4.36

1.02

3.67

1.59

*1.01

1.01

  Alcohol dependence

                            

 1‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol abuse

4.38

1.62

*2.43

1.43

*6.30

2.81

*1.84

1.18

*6.92

3.71

*8.60

6.15

—

—

              Alcohol dependence

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

         Nicotine dependence

7.27

1.28

8.11

1.66

5.39

2.21

7.91

2.33

6.99

1.68

*6.97

3.15

—

—

         Any drug use disorder

*0.48

0.34

*0.73

0.52

—

—

*0.74

0.74

*0.49

0.49

—

—

—

—

              Any drug abuse

*0.47

0.34

*0.72

0.51

—

—

*0.72

0.72

*0.48

0.48

—

—

—

—

              Any drug dependence

1.24

0.47

*1.32

0.63

*1.06

0.53

*1.08

0.55

*1.39

0.83

*1.26

0.93

—

—

         Any mood disorder

3.79

0.86

4.02

1.07

3.10

1.28

3.31

1.19

4.51

1.33

*3.38

2.95

—

—

              Major depressive disorder

1.97

0.54

2.32

0.72

*1.02

0.63

*1.56

0.70

*2.33

0.85

*2.27

2.18

—

—

              Bipolar I

0.95

0.34

*0.71

0.35

*1.49

0.78

*0.72

0.48

*0.92

0.46

*1.77

1.05

—

—

              Bipolar II

*0.29

0.15

*0.17

0.17

*0.54

0.32

*0.31

0.31

*0.33

0.22

*0.14

0.15

—

—

         Any anxiety disorder

2.93

0.75

2.37

0.89

4.57

1.34

2.69

1.06

3.88

1.38

*0.73

0.54

—

—

              Any panic disorder

1.06

0.34

*0.25

0.18

3.04

1.05

*1.47

0.64

*0.88

0.47

*0.50

0.36

—

—

                   Panic without agoraphobia

0.86

0.30

*0.24

0.18

2.34

0.90

*1.04

0.54

*0.84

0.45

*0.48

0.35

—

—

                   Panic with agoraphobia

*0.15

0.12

—

—

*0.48

0.38

*0.37

0.30

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Social phobia

*0.29

0.16

*0.22

0.19

*0.44

0.31

*0.17

0.17

*0.48

0.33

—

—

—

—

              Specific phobia

*0.92

0.49

*0.79

0.53

*1.26

0.99

*0.68

0.68

*1.45

0.89

—

—

—

—

              Generalized anxiety

2.16

0.62

1.55

0.54

3.60

1.53

*0.89

0.67

3.82

1.23

*0.85

0.60

—

—

 3‑year first iincidence

                            

         Alcohol use disorder

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

              Alcohol abuse

31.52

3.83

36.54

5.21

25.47

5.09

25.19

5.02

41.12

6.32

*28.51

9.91

*29.66

27.67

              Alcohol dependence

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

         Nicotine dependence

13.10

1.76

13.09

2.12

13.13

3.20

16.28

3.11

11.28

2.31

11.06

3.39

—

—

         Any drug use disorder

7.37

1.28

8.28

1.76

5.55

1.64

9.97

2.23

7.19

2.19

*3.04

1.66

—

—

              Any drug abuse

6.63

1.16

7.59

1.67

4.70

1.34

9.71

2.18

5.67

1.85

*3.04

1.66

—

—

              Any drug dependence

5.19

0.93

5.98

1.32

3.51

1.05

5.91

1.58

5.71

1.53

*2.17

1.07

—

—

         Any mood disorder

12.43

1.54

10.41

1.64

17.87

3.12

11.60

2.00

14.90

3.09

7.74

3.23

—

—

              Major depressive disorder

6.67

1.13

5.19

1.09

10.30

2.24

5.77

1.24

8.35

2.38

*4.65

2.43

—

—

              Bipolar I

4.34

0.78

3.57

0.92

6.02

1.38

4.58

1.31

3.68

1.03

*5.12

2.05

*13.24

12.03

              Bipolar II

1.48

0.39

*1.02

0.42

2.46

0.86

*1.36

0.64

*1.65

0.67

*1.37

0.83

—

—

         Any anxiety disorder

10.43

1.27

8.17

1.42

16.47

2.46

11.04

2.11

9.77

2.04

11.29

3.33

—

—

              Any panic disorder

3.68

0.84

1.89

0.59

7.83

2.06

3.96

1.17

4.30

1.37

*0.96

0.59

—

—

                   Panic without agoraphobia

2.97

0.78

1.63

0.54

6.06

1.89

3.28

1.10

3.54

1.27

*0.46

0.34

—

—

                   Panic with agoraphobia

*0.53

0.23

*0.19

0.19

*1.28

0.59

*0.56

0.35

*0.56

0.38

*0.40

0.40

—

—

              Social phobia

3.03

0.60

2.44

0.73

4.33

1.12

*2.34

0.94

3.39

0.85

*4.19

2.19

—

—

              Specific phobia

3.26

0.71

2.26

0.76

5.63

1.58

3.69

1.29

3.35

1.05

*2.03

1.03

—

—

              Generalized anxiety

5.11

0.80

3.85

0.85

8.06

1.74

4.75

1.29

6.08

1.37

*3.43

1.27

—

—

1Current drinker: 1 or more drinks in the past year. 

*Fewer than 10 observations in the cell.

—Empty cell.


SOURCE: NIAAA 2001–2002 and 2004–2005 National Epidemiologic Surveys on Alcohol and Related Conditions.

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