Table 3-2. Rates (%) of 1-year (i.e., Wave 2 past year) and 3-year (i.e., Wave 1 to Wave 2) first incidence of selected DSM-IV psychiatric disorders, by sex and age group, according to past-year average drinking level at Wave 1 among Wave 1 current drinkers.

Table 3-2. Rates (%) of 1‑year (i.e., Wave 2 past year) and 3‑year (i.e., Wave 1 to Wave 2) first incidence of selected DSM‑IV psychiatric disorders, by sex and age group, according to Wave 1 past‑year average drinking level1 among Wave 1 current drinkers.2

Wave 1 past‑year average drinking level
and first incidence rates of psychiatric disorders

Both sexes

Sex

Age group at Wave 1

Estimate

S.E.

Male

Female

18–24 years

25–44 years

45–64 years

65 years and older

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Estimate

S.E.

Light drinker

1‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

1.87

0.17

2.75

0.34

1.32

0.14

6.78

0.87

1.78

0.24

0.66

0.15

*0.15

0.11

Alcohol abuse

1.18

0.14

1.76

0.27

0.82

0.11

4.40

0.70

1.21

0.19

*0.23

0.09

—

Alcohol dependence

1.55

0.12

2.16

0.25

1.10

0.13

5.35

0.65

1.57

0.23

0.56

0.13

*0.13

0.09

Nicotine dependence

4.28

0.24

4.99

0.40

3.74

0.31

7.46

0.93

4.27

0.35

4.17

0.42

1.55

0.32

Any drug use disorder

0.38

0.07

0.41

0.10

0.37

0.09

1.89

0.42

0.27

0.10

*0.10

0.05

—

Any drug abuse

0.36

0.07

0.37

0.10

0.35

0.09

1.78

0.42

0.27

0.10

*0.06

0.04

—

Any drug dependence

0.36

0.08

0.56

0.16

0.21

0.08

1.59

0.43

*0.21

0.09

*0.22

0.13

—

Any mood disorder

2.57

0.18

1.54

0.20

3.52

0.29

4.16

0.65

2.90

0.29

1.83

0.25

1.78

0.38

Major depressive disorder

1.76

0.15

0.94

0.14

2.50

0.24

2.56

0.49

1.84

0.23

1.43

0.22

1.47

0.34

Bipolar I

0.57

0.07

0.51

0.11

0.61

0.10

1.04

0.30

0.72

0.14

0.29

0.08

*0.25

0.14

Bipolar II

0.23

0.05

*0.12

0.06

0.31

0.08

*0.54

0.21

0.32

0.09

*0.06

0.03

*0.03

0.03

Any anxiety disorder

1.72

0.15

1.16

0.18

2.25

0.23

1.80

0.40

2.38

0.26

1.36

0.26

*0.37

0.15

Any panic disorder

0.77

0.09

0.49

0.12

1.00

0.14

1.17

0.29

0.88

0.16

0.73

0.16

*0.10

0.08

Panic without agoraphobia

0.64

0.08

0.43

0.11

0.81

0.12

0.96

0.27

0.71

0.14

0.63

0.14

*0.10

0.08

Panic with agoraphobia

0.12

0.03

*0.06

0.04

0.16

0.06

*0.18

0.10

*0.15

0.07

*0.09

0.05

—

Social phobia

0.34

0.06

0.33

0.10

0.34

0.08

*0.31

0.17

0.46

0.11

0.27

0.11

*0.10

0.05

Specific phobia

0.45

0.07

0.29

0.08

0.60

0.10

*0.36

0.16

0.61

0.12

0.45

0.14

*0.03

0.03

Generalized anxiety

1.20

0.11

0.75

0.14

1.56

0.17

0.90

0.23

1.75

0.20

0.91

0.17

*0.32

0.14

3‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

5.83

0.31

8.56

0.62

4.08

0.32

18.09

1.33

5.24

0.42

3.02

0.39

0.83

0.25

Alcohol abuse

5.00

0.29

7.37

0.54

3.48

0.31

14.94

1.20

4.61

0.42

2.53

0.37

0.75

0.23

Alcohol dependence

2.76

0.17

3.75

0.31

2.04

0.20

9.58

0.86

2.57

0.28

1.17

0.21

*0.31

0.14

Nicotine dependence

6.61

0.31

7.67

0.51

5.79

0.35

10.64

1.03

6.75

0.43

6.53

0.59

2.40

0.42

Any drug use disorder

1.89

0.19

2.30

0.31

1.58

0.20

6.48

0.82

1.76

0.32

0.84

0.22

*0.31

0.14

Any drug abuse

1.84

0.18

2.19

0.30

1.58

0.20

6.29

0.82

1.72

0.31

0.82

0.23

*0.31

0.14

Any drug dependence

0.75

0.11

0.97

0.18

0.58

0.14

2.59

0.50

0.68

0.18

0.37

0.14

*0.02

0.02

Any mood disorder

7.43

0.32

4.76

0.36

9.80

0.44

10.92

0.86

8.07

0.52

6.43

0.52

4.43

0.51

Major depressive disorder

5.27

0.27

2.93

0.29

7.30

0.39

6.43

0.67

5.42

0.41

5.08

0.48

4.00

0.48

Bipolar I

1.84

0.13

1.63

0.21

2.01

0.18

3.41

0.50

2.30

0.21

1.09

0.17

*0.51

0.20

Bipolar II

0.76

0.09

0.63

0.14

0.85

0.12

2.01

0.41

0.86

0.14

0.37

0.12

*0.04

0.03

Any anxiety disorder

7.01

0.30

5.10

0.41

8.70

0.47

9.46

0.88

8.16

0.45

6.30

0.52

2.32

0.40

Any panic disorder

2.06

0.16

1.20

0.18

2.74

0.24

3.33

0.50

2.45

0.27

1.59

0.24

*0.48

0.18

Panic without agoraphobia

1.67

0.15

0.94

0.16

2.26

0.22

2.66

0.45

1.99

0.24

1.32

0.21

*0.37

0.15

Panic with agoraphobia

0.35

0.06

0.25

0.09

0.42

0.09

0.63

0.21

0.41

0.11

0.24

0.10

*0.10

0.10

Social phobia

1.51

0.14

1.22

0.18

1.75

0.19

2.24

0.44

1.75

0.20

1.33

0.27

0.40

0.14

Specific phobia

2.51

0.18

2.05

0.25

2.89

0.23

3.74

0.59

2.59

0.25

2.59

0.30

0.76

0.24

Generalized anxiety

3.55

0.19

2.16

0.25

4.66

0.29

3.36

0.51

4.55

0.32

3.05

0.35

1.51

0.34

Moderate drinker

1‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

3.76

0.56

4.08

0.73

3.13

0.68

14.98

3.61

3.56

0.76

1.96

0.64

*1.17

0.84

Alcohol abuse

2.36

0.45

2.49

0.58

2.10

0.54

7.56

2.52

2.19

0.59

1.48

0.50

*0.92

0.81

Alcohol dependence

3.13

0.38

3.20

0.44

2.95

0.62

8.95

1.87

3.66

0.63

1.70

0.39

*0.60

0.35

Nicotine dependence

5.32

0.43

5.26

0.53

5.45

0.97

10.28

1.95

5.05

0.62

4.90

0.75

3.00

0.85

Any drug use disorder

0.35

0.11

*0.33

0.13

*0.41

0.22

*1.23

0.60

*0.42

0.19

*0.12

0.07

—

Any drug abuse

0.35

0.11

*0.33

0.13

*0.40

0.21

*1.23

0.60

*0.42

0.19

*0.10

0.07

—

Any drug dependence

0.29

0.08

0.39

0.11

—

*1.21

0.49

*0.08

0.04

*0.33

0.18

—

Any mood disorder

1.67

0.23

1.32

0.24

2.84

0.62

2.71

0.87

1.87

0.37

1.09

0.30

*1.42

0.57

Major depressive disorder

1.22

0.17

0.97

0.19

1.98

0.46

*1.72

0.62

1.20

0.28

0.97

0.28

*1.32

0.56

Bipolar I

0.40

0.10

0.30

0.10

*0.69

0.27

*0.79

0.43

*0.44

0.17

*0.21

0.12

*0.32

0.25

Bipolar II

*0.12

0.05

*0.05

0.03

*0.33

0.16

—

*0.15

0.06

*0.09

0.09

*0.24

0.24

Any anxiety disorder

1.15

0.22

1.04

0.24

1.54

0.39

*0.55

0.42

2.02

0.43

*0.54

0.20

*0.24

0.24

Any panic disorder

0.42

0.11

*0.27

0.11

0.87

0.26

*0.07

0.07

0.84

0.24

*0.11

0.09

—

Panic without agoraphobia

0.33

0.09

*0.15

0.07

0.84

0.26

*0.07

0.07

0.63

0.20

*0.11

0.09

—

Panic with agoraphobia

*0.09

0.06

*0.11

0.08

*0.02

0.02

—

*0.19

0.13

—

Social phobia

*0.09

0.05

*0.09

0.06

*0.08

0.06

—

*0.13

0.09

*0.10

0.10

—

Specific phobia

0.41

0.12

0.39

0.13

*0.48

0.27

*0.60

0.48

0.58

0.20

*0.26

0.11

—

Generalized anxiety

0.96

0.17

0.70

0.18

1.73

0.43

*1.28

0.62

1.39

0.31

*0.37

0.15

*0.48

0.32

3‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

13.78

0.91

15.60

1.13

10.08

1.31

34.69

4.60

15.47

1.43

9.46

1.23

3.49

1.11

Alcohol abuse

11.85

0.79

13.39

0.99

8.67

1.19

25.57

3.53

13.56

1.27

8.53

1.16

3.22

1.08

Alcohol dependence

6.35

0.55

6.45

0.59

6.10

0.97

17.20

2.66

7.58

0.87

3.35

0.56

*0.88

0.40

Nicotine dependence

8.22

0.55

8.51

0.67

7.45

1.06

16.10

2.42

8.40

0.80

6.40

0.89

4.87

1.08

Any drug use disorder

2.64

0.32

2.82

0.40

2.15

0.50

9.89

1.69

2.81

0.46

0.82

0.32

—

Any drug abuse

2.55

0.31

2.81

0.40

1.87

0.45

9.88

1.69

2.70

0.45

*0.71

0.31

—

Any drug dependence

1.20

0.21

1.27

0.26

1.02

0.33

4.24

1.17

0.96

0.22

0.75

0.31

—

Any mood disorder

5.31

0.49

4.05

0.50

9.34

1.22

9.51

1.57

5.94

0.71

3.85

0.61

2.48

0.75

Major depressive disorder

3.63

0.34

2.76

0.35

6.31

0.86

5.91

1.11

3.85

0.51

2.78

0.49

2.37

0.74

Bipolar I

1.66

0.29

1.25

0.31

2.77

0.60

2.56

0.77

1.89

0.43

1.45

0.41

*0.32

0.25

Bipolar II

0.46

0.11

0.28

0.08

0.97

0.36

*1.09

0.45

0.51

0.14

*0.14

0.10

*0.37

0.28

Any anxiety disorder

5.02

0.47

4.14

0.48

7.80

1.10

6.80

1.40

6.04

0.69

4.55

0.71

*0.66

0.39

Any panic disorder

1.44

0.23

1.01

0.24

2.66

0.50

*1.85

0.72

1.77

0.33

1.17

0.37

*0.40

0.30

Panic without agoraphobia

1.12

0.20

0.74

0.20

2.23

0.48

*1.64

0.71

1.30

0.28

1.03

0.35

*0.12

0.12

Panic with agoraphobia

0.29

0.09

*0.26

0.11

*0.39

0.18

*0.19

0.15

0.43

0.17

*0.13

0.10

*0.27

0.27

Social phobia

1.21

0.17

1.10

0.21

1.53

0.35

2.20

0.74

1.49

0.25

0.83

0.26

—

Specific phobia

1.92

0.26

1.55

0.26

3.02

0.67

2.70

0.98

2.31

0.42

1.73

0.38

*0.12

0.12

Generalized anxiety

2.41

0.28

1.83

0.27

4.06

0.68

3.57

1.05

2.73

0.39

2.10

0.41

*0.66

0.34

Heavier drinker

1‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

4.18

0.78

5.76

1.36

3.11

0.89

*6.46

3.64

6.48

1.63

3.95

1.25

—

Alcohol abuse

2.32

0.52

2.76

0.92

2.03

0.59

*3.71

1.77

3.25

1.09

*2.16

0.83

—

Alcohol dependence

5.18

0.65

6.83

0.97

3.19

0.75

10.52

2.92

4.36

0.82

6.09

1.25

*1.60

0.70

Nicotine dependence

7.79

0.72

9.19

1.11

5.83

0.89

9.81

2.06

9.12

1.28

7.21

1.10

*2.98

1.27

Any drug use disorder

*0.30

0.12

*0.39

0.20

*0.20

0.12

*1.30

0.77

*0.30

0.18

*0.08

0.08

—

Any drug abuse

*0.31

0.12

*0.39

0.20

*0.21

0.12

*1.31

0.76

*0.29

0.18

*0.08

0.08

—

Any drug dependence

0.61

0.18

0.71

0.27

*0.48

0.21

*1.94

0.76

*0.60

0.32

*0.19

0.14

—

Any mood disorder

2.05

0.30

2.21

0.44

1.76

0.40

2.97

0.88

1.99

0.48

2.44

0.71

—

Major depressive disorder

1.23

0.24

1.21

0.34

1.25

0.36

1.30

0.53

1.30

0.37

1.55

0.62

—

Bipolar I

0.69

0.16

0.69

0.22

0.68

0.26

*1.32

0.54

*0.49

0.19

*0.84

0.30

—

Bipolar II

*0.18

0.08

*0.22

0.11

*0.12

0.08

*0.49

0.34

*0.12

0.08

*0.14

0.09

—

Any anxiety disorder

1.63

0.31

1.17

0.34

2.42

0.63

2.18

0.73

1.58

0.48

2.03

0.72

—

Any panic disorder

0.58

0.16

*0.36

0.16

0.93

0.31

*1.34

0.54

*0.39

0.21

*0.61

0.29

—

Panic without agoraphobia

0.51

0.15

*0.35

0.16

0.76

0.28

*1.01

0.46

*0.38

0.20

*0.59

0.28

—

Panic with agoraphobia

*0.05

0.04

—

*0.13

0.11

*0.30

0.24

—

Social phobia

*0.24

0.09

*0.21

0.12

*0.28

0.14

*0.29

0.20

*0.34

0.17

*0.16

0.16

—

Specific phobia

0.58

0.22

*0.54

0.25

*0.65

0.40

*0.19

0.19

*0.76

0.35

*0.78

0.51

—

Generalized anxiety

1.16

0.24

0.64

0.20

1.96

0.53

*0.95

0.50

1.55

0.48

1.11

0.36

*0.22

0.22

3‑year first iincidence

Alcohol use disorder

21.18

1.62

29.21

2.62

14.86

1.67

38.10

5.92

26.63

2.80

17.43

2.59

7.35

2.02

Alcohol abuse

19.50

1.50

27.50

2.40

13.18

1.58

32.48

4.54

23.24

2.71

15.65

2.28

7.55

2.09

Alcohol dependence

10.93

0.88

12.89

1.27

8.55

1.17

22.86

3.75

11.09

1.27

10.71

1.51

*2.17

0.84

Nicotine dependence

11.30

0.89

12.61

1.24

9.48

1.16

15.98

2.49

11.68

1.44

11.36

1.37

4.52

1.47

Any drug use disorder

3.49

0.46

4.61

0.70

2.01

0.46

10.95

2.16

3.81

0.77

1.57

0.44

—

Any drug abuse

3.37

0.45

4.40

0.68

2.02

0.46

10.77

2.15

3.52

0.72

1.57

0.44

—

Any drug dependence

2.05

0.38

2.69

0.61

1.14

0.31

5.20

1.20

2.73

0.77

*0.30

0.16

—

Any mood disorder

7.32

0.72

6.63

0.89

8.52

1.03

8.33

1.42

9.25

1.37

5.94

1.13

*2.85

1.01

Major depressive disorder

4.82

0.57

3.93

0.67

6.30

0.91

4.87

0.95

5.76

1.09

4.49

0.97

*2.11

0.87

Bipolar I

2.37

0.33

2.45

0.45

2.24

0.44

4.35

1.07

2.67

0.58

1.56

0.42

*0.44

0.43

Bipolar II

0.87

0.18

0.65

0.21

1.19

0.32

*1.11

0.56

1.11

0.33

*0.65

0.25

*0.21

0.21

Any anxiety disorder

6.88

0.59

5.45

0.69

9.25

1.06

8.14

1.54

7.40

0.96

7.32

1.14

*2.03

0.86

Any panic disorder

2.09

0.30

1.36

0.28

3.20

0.57

3.63

0.85

2.02

0.51

1.88

0.51

*0.42

0.42

Panic without agoraphobia

1.79

0.29

1.22

0.26

2.64

0.53

2.95

0.77

1.79

0.49

1.60

0.45

*0.42

0.41

Panic with agoraphobia

*0.25

0.09

*0.12

0.09

*0.45

0.17

*0.62

0.33

*0.18

0.10

*0.22

0.17

—

Social phobia

1.98

0.28

1.73

0.37

2.35

0.48

*1.85

0.73

2.47

0.46

1.72

0.53

*1.05

0.68

Specific phobia

2.15

0.32

1.54

0.37

3.12

0.60

3.10

1.01

2.71

0.55

1.56

0.56

*0.22

0.22

Generalized anxiety

3.48

0.43

2.69

0.52

4.70

0.75

3.43

0.97

4.01

0.74

3.55

0.73

*1.41

0.72

1Light drinker: 3 or fewer drinks per week on average. Moderate drinker: on average more than 3 drinks and up to 7 drinks per week for women and more than 3 drinks and up to 14 drinks per week for men.
Heavier drinker: on average more than 1 drink per day for women and more than 2 drinks per day for men.

2Current drinker: 1 or more drinks in the past year.

*Fewer than 10 observations in the cell.

—Empty cell.

SOURCE: NIAAA 2001–2002 and 2004–2005 National Epidemiologic Surveys on Alcohol and Related Conditions.

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